Development of an improved ionospheric near real time forecast system with The Met Office

IDC in Systems

University of Bristol and University of Bath

The project focuses on improved forecasts of the ionosphere. Space weather alerts in this region are of especial importance to users of high frequency (HF) radio communications and Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) applications. In collaboration with the University of Bath, the Met Office runs Multi-Instrument Data Analysis Software (MIDAS), which provides near real time analyses (or nowcasts) of Total Electron Content (TEC), which is the integrated vertical column of ionospheric electron density. The analyses are created using observations available over land regions only, and which give little information about the vertical structure of the ionosphere. Accordingly, the MIDAS analyses currently produced in near real time at the Met Office are only for the European region, and are of TEC rather than 3D electron density.

We wish to extend the ionospheric analysis system to the whole globe, and improve the representation of the vertical structure of the ionosphere (leading to more accurate and reliable alerts for HF and GNSS users), with the overarching aim of improving ionospheric nowcast and forecast quality.